Altcoin Short-Term Holders Selling at a Profit in Just 12% of Tokens, Glassnode Says

Recent buyers of altcoins have moved from locking in gains to absorbing losses, with short-term holders selling at a profit in only about 12% of the more than 300 tokens tracked by Glassnode by the end of October, according to a report from the on-chain analytics firm published on 4 November.

The figure stands in sharp contrast to late September, when roughly 80% of those tokens showed profitable selling by short-term holders. A separate market-breadth gauge from BlockchainCenter, also dated 4 November, indicated that fewer than half of the major coins it monitors had outperformed bitcoin over the past 90 days.

From profit-taking to loss-taking

The shift captured by Glassnode marks a reversal in the fortunes of investors who entered altcoin positions relatively recently. In September, the market backdrop had been markedly different, with CryptoSlate describing that month as one of spot-led rotation into altcoins. Spot-led moves are generally viewed as driven by outright purchases of tokens rather than by leveraged derivatives positioning.

By the end of October, that picture had changed. Glassnode said that for a typical token in its tracked universe, short-term holders were selling at a small loss. In other words, the group of investors most likely to have bought during the September rotation was, on balance, parting with coins below the price at which they had acquired them.

The 12% figure refers specifically to the share of tokens whose short-term holders were realising profits when they sold. The remaining tokens in the sample showed short-term holders either breaking even or, more commonly, selling at a loss.

How the measure works

Glassnode's analysis relies on a metric known as the short-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or STH-SOPR. The indicator compares the value of coins at the moment they are moved on-chain with their value when they were last acquired, focusing on holders who have owned their coins for a relatively short period.

A reading above 1 signals that, in aggregate, these holders are selling at a profit. A reading below 1 indicates that they are realising losses. The measure therefore offers a window into the behaviour and sentiment of the market's more reactive participants, who are often the first to sell when prices weaken.

Loss realisation tells observers that sellers are willing to accept prices below their cost basis. That can be interpreted in different ways. In some market cycles, widespread loss-taking has preceded a period in which weaker hands are flushed out and selling pressure fades. In others, it has been an early sign of a more prolonged downturn.

CryptoSlate cautioned that the data alone cannot settle which of those scenarios is unfolding. Realised losses on their own do not reveal whether sellers are close to exhaustion or whether further weakness lies ahead.

A neutral reading on market breadth

The second data point comes from BlockchainCenter, which publishes an Altcoin Season Index designed to track how broadly gains are spread across the market. The index compares the 90-day performance of its eligible top-50 coins against bitcoin, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens.

Under the site's definition, an altcoin season occurs when 75% of that group outperforms bitcoin over the window. The 4 November reading stood at 41, placing it within what the index treats as a neutral band rather than either an altcoin season or a bitcoin-dominated phase.

A reading of 41 means fewer than half of the eligible major coins had beaten bitcoin over the period. Importantly, that is a relative measure. A token can rise in dollar terms and still lag bitcoin if bitcoin climbs faster. Equally, a coin can post a stronger relative return over a 90-day window even while its recent buyers are selling at a loss over a shorter horizon.

That distinction matters for interpreting the two datasets side by side. One describes the realised outcomes of a particular cohort of sellers; the other describes how a basket of large coins has performed against the market's dominant asset.

Why the two gauges should not be merged

CryptoSlate stressed that the Glassnode and BlockchainCenter figures cannot be combined into a single percentage or treated as a change within one shared group of assets. Glassnode's spending measure covers more than 300 tokens, while BlockchainCenter's performance test is limited to an eligible top-50 universe.

The timing also differs. Glassnode's profitability observations relate to late September and the end of October, whereas BlockchainCenter's breadth snapshot is from 4 November. Neither metric is a direct gauge of buying activity, so neither can by itself confirm whether new money is flowing into altcoins.

Taken together, however, the two readings point to a useful distinction: a reset in holders' profits is not the same as a shift in market leadership. Glassnode's data show that the profit cushion built up during September has largely disappeared for recent buyers. BlockchainCenter's figure shows that, over a longer window, broad altcoin outperformance against bitcoin has not been established.

The combination leaves the case for fresh altcoin demand unproven. Fewer tokens are seeing profitable selling, and relative breadth sits in neutral territory rather than signalling a rotation away from bitcoin.

What would signal a broader recovery

For analysts looking for evidence of a more durable altcoin rebound, the source suggests that two developments would need to occur together. The first would be a sustained improvement in spending profitability, with STH-SOPR readings moving back above 1 across a wider share of tokens. The second would be a rising proportion of major coins outperforming bitcoin.

Those two conditions address different parts of the picture. Improved profitability would indicate that recent sellers are once again exiting at a gain, while expanding outperformance would show that relative strength is spreading beyond a narrow group of assets.

Even then, there are limits to what the indicators can confirm. Because neither measure tracks purchases directly, a recovery in profitability alone would leave open the question of whether genuine new demand is entering the market. The Altcoin Season Index is also backward-looking by design, measuring returns over a completed 90-day window rather than forecasting future moves.

Key markers for market participants in the weeks ahead include:

• Whether the share of tokens with profitable short-term-holder spending recovers from around 12%
• Whether the typical tracked token's STH-SOPR moves back above 1
• Whether BlockchainCenter's index climbs towards the 75 threshold or slips further
• Whether any recovery is accompanied by evidence of fresh spot buying

For now, the data describe a market in which the gains accumulated by recent altcoin buyers during September have been largely unwound, and in which the broader question of leadership between altcoins and bitcoin remains unresolved.