Bitcoin ETFs Draw $526.7m in Best Day Since 22 September as BlackRock's IBIT Leads

US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $526.7m in net inflows on Monday, their strongest session since 22 September, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker. The money came almost entirely through a single product, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust.

The turnaround follows a fortnight in which the funds lost roughly $910m. It also comes against an uncomfortable macroeconomic backdrop of high oil prices, sticky inflation and Treasury yields above 5%.

A single fund carries the day

The last session to beat Monday's total was on 22 September, when the funds took in $714.7m. That makes Monday the best day for the group in close to a month.

The headline figure masks a lopsided picture. BlackRock's IBIT gathered $665.2m on its own, according to data from Farside Investors. That is more than the net total for all the funds combined, meaning the rest of the field was collectively in outflow.

Fidelity's FBTC recorded redemptions of $83.6m, while Grayscale's GBTC lost $54.9m. The remaining spot bitcoin funds reported no flows at all.

The concentration is notable. A healthy rebound in demand would typically show up across several issuers. Instead, Monday's data suggests that buyers were choosing BlackRock's product specifically, while holders of competing funds continued to trim positions.

Ending two weeks of selling

Monday's inflow interrupted a stretch of persistent redemptions. Over roughly two weeks, the funds shed about $910m. The heaviest day came on 7 October, when $484.9m left, the worst session since June.

The selling extended into the end of last week. Friday closed with net outflows of $82.4m, which makes Monday's reversal look all the sharper.

Even after the rebound, the month remains negative. US spot bitcoin ETFs were still about $88m in the red for October, with nine trading sessions left before the month closes.

Ether and Solana funds move the other way

The appetite for bitcoin exposure did not extend to other crypto products. Spot Ethereum ETFs lost $103m on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive day of outflows. Solana ETFs saw redemptions of $6.7m, according to Decrypt's SOL ETF tracker.

Taken together, bitcoin, ether and Solana funds still drew a net inflow of roughly $417m.

BlackRock sat at the top of both tables. Its Ethereum fund, ETHA, accounted for $95.4m of the ether outflow, on the same day IBIT took in $665.2m. The divergence suggests investors were not simply adding to crypto as an asset class. Some may have been rotating within it, favouring bitcoin over ether, possibly within the same fund family.

That pattern matters for anyone reading flow data as a sentiment gauge. Aggregate numbers can look constructive while individual products and assets tell a more mixed story.

Price near the average holder's breakeven

Bitcoin traded around $82,000 on Monday. That is close to the $82,300 average cost basis for ETF holders estimated last week by Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo.

Cost basis refers to the average price at which investors acquired their holdings. With the market price sitting near that level, the typical ETF holder is roughly at breakeven.

That threshold can carry psychological weight. Investors who have been underwater may be tempted to sell once they recover their outlay, which can create resistance near the cost basis. Equally, holders who are only modestly in profit may be reluctant to sell, which can lend support. Which effect dominates often depends on the wider market mood.

Oil, inflation and the pull of Treasuries

That wider mood is being shaped heavily by energy markets. Brent crude, the global reference grade for oil, changed hands in a range of $108 to $110 per barrel on Monday, following strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf over the weekend.

Expensive oil filters through the economy because it lifts fuel and freight costs, and nearly every good has to be transported before it reaches a consumer. For that reason, markets track crude closely.

The effect is already visible in official data. The consumer price index rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September, with the energy component up 20.4%. Persistent inflation has kept the Federal Reserve inclined towards another increase, after it raised its target range by a quarter of a percentage point in September.

Expectations of further tightening tend to push up Treasury yields, the return investors receive for lending to the US government. The 10-year yield remained above 5% on Monday, according to Treasury data. The 30-year yield touched about 5.7% on 7 October, the same day the bitcoin funds suffered their $484.9m outflow.

This is where the pressure on bitcoin becomes direct. The asset pays no income, so a government bond offering more than 5% with considerably less price volatility competes for the same pool of capital. When safe yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises with them.

The timing of recent outflows is consistent with that argument. The $261.4m that left the funds on 14 October came on the day the September CPI report was published.

Risks to the rebound

One strong day does not establish a trend. The funds remain in net outflow for the month, and the latest inflow was driven by a single issuer rather than broad-based demand.

The macro forces behind the recent selling have not eased. Oil remains elevated after the Gulf attacks, inflation is running well above the Fed's comfort zone and long-term yields are near levels that offer a credible alternative to riskier assets. If any of those intensify, the case for holding a non-yielding asset weakens further.

The proximity of the price to the ETF cost basis adds another layer of uncertainty. A sustained move below that level would leave the average holder at a loss, which could test the conviction of recent buyers.

There is also the question of what the continuing outflows from FBTC, GBTC and the ether funds say about investor positioning. Monday's net figure was positive, but a meaningful share of holders were still heading for the exit.

What to watch next

The coming fortnight offers several reference points for whether Monday marks a turning point or a pause:

• Whether inflows broaden beyond IBIT to other issuers
• The October flow total, which stood about $88m negative with nine sessions to go
• Bitcoin's price relative to the estimated $82,300 ETF cost basis
• Brent crude and Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year above 5%
• The Federal Reserve meeting on 27-28 October

The Fed decision is likely to be the most important single event. A further rate rise would reinforce the appeal of Treasuries, while any signal of a pause could ease some of the pressure that has weighed on bitcoin funds through much of the month.