Bitcoin Has Entered the 'Initial Phase' of a New Bull Market, CryptoQuant Says — With $83K the Line That Matters

Bitcoin's 24% rally has flipped enough indicators that CryptoQuant is willing to use the phrase everyone has been avoiding all year: the analytics firm says the market has entered the early stages of a new bull cycle, with eight of the ten components in its Bull Score index now flashing bullish.

The composite score jumped to 80 from 30 over the past week — its highest reading since October 2025, the month Bitcoin set its $126,080 record before rolling over into a months-long drawdown.

The confirmation level

CryptoQuant's checklist is not complete. The firm wants a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, currently near $83,000, before calling the regime change confirmed. Bitcoin traded around $79,000 at the time of the report after topping $81,000 on Monday.

LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger draws his line in nearly the same place, pointing to May's high of $82,820. A clear break above it, he argues, would confirm that a meaningful cycle low is in place and shift attention toward $100,000 — and, eventually, a retest of the 2025 record.

What changed underneath

The firm's data shows spot demand accelerating, and spot and futures demand rising together for the first time since early October 2025. That matters because rallies driven by leverage alone tend to unwind violently, while rallies with a spot bid underneath them have somewhere to land on pullbacks. The six-day, $2.26 billion streak of ETF inflows is the visible half of that spot demand.

CryptoQuant's own caveat: profit-taking metrics are rising, and short-term holders are sitting on their fattest unrealized gains in months. The initial phase of a bull market, in other words, is also the phase where the market is most eager to sell into strength. A stall below $83,000 would keep the year's downtrend technically intact.